China-Taiwan crisis scenario

The Political Risk Podcast

29-11-2023 • 38 mins

Tensions are high between Xi's China and Taiwan. Taiwanese elections in January could be the next flashpoint. The risk of conflict has been a live wire of Asian geopolitics since China’s civil war ended, splitting the island from the Communist mainland. Taiwan is a top exporter of semiconductors and sits astride a maritime trade artery. In early 2023, Lloyd’s undertook an RDS-style exercise to gather exposure data to a Taiwan conflict. Of three scenarios, “Quarantine” focused on hybrid warfare, combining maritime blockade with air, space and cyberspace, to squeeze Taiwan’s economy and coerce its US-backed government into reunification. Guests: Mark Wheeler, co-CEO of Mosaic Insurance; and Dr Zeno Leoni, lecturer in the Defence Studies Department of King’s College London and author of "Grand Strategy and the Rise of China".