This is a war risk insurance flavoured episode, featuring Michael Burle, head of marine at Liberty Specialty Markets, and Neil Roberts, secretary of the Joint War Committee, and head of marine and aviation at the Lloyd's Market Association. We discuss the Red Sea Crisis of Houthi attacks on shipping, plus Somali piracy activity in the Gulf of Aden, and we also talk about re/insuring Ukrainian war risks, on land and in the Black Sea.

The liberal international order, sometimes called Pax Americana, is in decline, but it's unclear what happens next. In this episode we explore the concept of geopolitical 'interregnum' as a framework for markets and insurers to consider the business environment. Michael Feller is a partner at Geopolitical Strategy, based in Melbourne, who has held senior roles in Australia’s foreign service and prime minister’s department.

Two political violence interviews from the recent GAIF34 event in Oman. The first focuses on South Africa before the country's tense general election in May. Carla Jordan is CEO of London-based Santam Specialist Business, and CEO of Santam-owned, Johannesburg-based MGA, Emerald Risk Transfer. The second conversation is with Rafic Abi Saleh, assistant vice president, war & terrorism at Liberty Specialty Markets in Dubai, to discuss the rapid growth of the Middle East's PV market.

A special episode in association with Mosaic Insurance. Guests Yosha DeLong, global head of cyber, Mosaic Insurance, and Jason Nurse, reader in cyber security, University of Kent, discuss the need for greater alignment between insurance, corporate and government stakeholders for managing cyber security, particularly against the heightened threat posed by ransomware attacks.

Sir Stewart Eldon, KCMG OBE, is a consultant and former senior diplomat. His diplomatic postings include serving as UK permanent representative to NATO, ambassador to Ireland, and as the UK’s deputy permanent representative to the UN in New York. He advises Transparency International on counter-corruption in defence, and is senior civil adviser to the Higher Command & Staff College at the UK Defence Academy. Working with The Ambassador Partnership, a specialist consultancy of former diplomats, he recently published an article on geopolitical shifts for 2024. In this episode we discuss Ukraine, NATO’s expansion northwards, Turkey, the ambitions of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and the role of Sub-Saharan Africa in the Global South.

Bruce Carman is founder and chief underwriting officer of HIVE Underwriters. To coincide with the two-year anniversary of Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, when Russia's government seized many western aircraft, this episode focuses on the aviation war insurance market in the period since then. Reinsurers have withdrawn capacity and increased prices exponentially, and last year a civil war in Sudan led to several airliners destroyed at Khartoum's airport, demonstrating the value of systems like Sentinel, which HIVE has developed to monitor accumulation risk for its insured assets in real-time.

John Hulsman is a political risk analyst and best-selling author. A Washington insider, John is a life member of the US Council on Foreign Relations, and served as a senior research fellow in geopolitics and foreign policy at the Heritage Foundation. He has made a name for himself as a pre-eminent predictor of geopolitical risk. His new book draws on realist case studies in American political history for a future Republican foreign policy.

This episode features Chris Holt, CEO of Lloyd's broker and advisory CHC Global, and a former British Army bomb disposal officer. We discuss CHC's Annual Malicious Risk Report 2024, which has three themes: political polarisation; the implications of energy transition; and the race for technological superiority.

Insurers are used to catastrophe risk models, but modelling terrorism and PV, such as marauding attacks or outbreaks of civil unrest, is a very different challenge. Stephen Tench, Gallagher Re's head of Middle East & Africa catastrophe analytics, is a pioneer on this subject, employing fresh data for frequency as well as severity, adapting existing modelling techniques, and harnessing the revolutionary power of AI.

Michele Wucker is a best selling author, strategist, speaker, and qualified risk director. A strategic advisor and global economic policy expert, Michele coined the term “Gray Rhino” as a call to decision makers to improve how they respond to obvious, probable, impactful risks. A former media and think tank executive drawing on decades of experience in global finance and economics, she works at the nexus of policy, behavioural science, and business strategy. Her four books include the influential global bestseller, The Gray Rhino, and its sequel, You Are What You Risk.

Tensions are high between Xi's China and Taiwan. Taiwanese elections in January could be the next flashpoint. The risk of conflict has been a live wire of Asian geopolitics since China’s civil war ended, splitting the island from the Communist mainland. Taiwan is a top exporter of semiconductors and sits astride a maritime trade artery. In early 2023, Lloyd’s undertook an RDS-style exercise to gather exposure data to a Taiwan conflict. Of three scenarios, “Quarantine” focused on hybrid warfare, combining maritime blockade with air, space and cyberspace, to squeeze Taiwan’s economy and coerce its US-backed government into reunification. Guests: Mark Wheeler, co-CEO of Mosaic Insurance; and Dr Zeno Leoni, lecturer in the Defence Studies Department of King’s College London and author of "Grand Strategy and the Rise of China".

A conversation with Elizabeth Stephens of Geopolitical Risk Advisory, on events in Israel, Gaza and the threat of regional escalation for the Middle East. We also discuss the rising emphasis on geopolitical risk for financial services firms, advice for entities with operations in the Arab world, and the respective roles of Iran, Russia and China in the ongoing conflict.

Political stability and food prices are closely linked. This episode with Crispin Hodges, head of trade political risk, Canopius, looks at the effects of Russia's decision not to renew the Ukrainian grain corridor deal and a resulting drop in Black Sea grain exports. If food costs increase and grain shortages ensue, how will this impact emerging economies in North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa?

Latin America is a political violence hotspot. SRCC claims in some territories have surpassed natural catastrophe losses, driving insurers to exclude these risks, in turn resulting in strong demand for standalone political violence products. This episode focuses on the threat landscape and likely triggers. Guests: Napoleon Montes-Amaya, head of Hiscox Miami; Mario Andrés Salcedo, head of terrorism and political violence for Latin America, Howden; and Tom Bradbrook, global head of terrorism and political violence, Howden.

Frédéric Denèfle is the president of IUMI, and MD of marine war risk insurer Garex. Neil Roberts is head of marine and aviation at the Lloyd’s Market Association, and secretary of the Joint War Committee. This episode looks at marine war risk in the Black Sea, the "Dark Fleet" of tankers, and the war risk and geopolitical focus for marine insurance at IUMI 2023.

Charlie Hanbury is the CEO of Samphire Risk, an independent London market MGA, focused on malicious risks, such as kidnap and ransom, crisis response, terrorism and political violence. This episode focuses on the interplay between malicious risks and climate change.

Jake Hernandez runs crisis management consultancy AnotherDay, recently acquired by Gallagher, an insurance broker. He recently returned from Kyiv and has been a regular visitor to Ukraine before and after the Russian invasion. Jake’s aim is to find ways to make Ukrainian war risks insurable. Finding solutions to this challenge is crucial for economic activity to continue within the country, as well as towards efforts to underwrite Ukraine’s postwar reconstruction.

A launch episode on the risk of political interference by the Chinese Communist Party. Insurance companies have courted Chinese commerce while neglecting this threat to their own business. George Magnus is a research associate for University of Oxford China Centre and a former UBS chief economist. David Worsfold is an author and journalist who has experienced this Chinese wall of silence interviewing insurance industry CEOs about China.

The Political Risk Podcast is an independent new podcast, focused on geopolitical risk topics, for decision-makers in specialty insurance, reinsurance markets and beyond. It launches with two episodes in July 2023. Topics to include China-Taiwan crisis, rebuilding Ukraine, Latin American political violence, state-sponsored cyber risk, climate change and social unrest, and the insider threat of Chinese Communist Party political interference inside western companies, including insurance firms. Early episodes will feature guests from Canopius, Gallagher, Hiscox, Howden, Mosaic, Samphire, King's College London and University of Oxford's China Centre, interviewed by host David Benyon.